OMPUTER BASED DELPHI PROCESSES
by
Murray Turoff and Starr Roxanne Hiltz
A version will appear as an INVITED BOOK CHAPTER for Michael Adler and Erio Ziglio, editors., Gazing Into the Oracle: The Delphi Method and Its Application to Social Policy and Public Health, London, Kingsley Publishers (in press).
CONTENTS
- INTRODUCTION
- ASYNCHRONOUS INTERACTION
- ANONYMITY
- MODERATION AND FACILITATION
- STRUCTURE
- ANALYSIS
- DELPHI,EXPERT SYSTEMS,GDSS AND COLLABORATIVE SYSTEMS
- CONCLUSION
- REFERENCES
- BIOGRAPHIES
INTRODUCTION
The name "Delphi" was never a term with which either Olaf Helmer or Norman Dalkey (the founders of the method) were particular happy. Since many of the early Delphi studies focused on utilizing the technique to make forecasts of future occurrences, the name was first applied by some others at Rand as a joke. However, the name stuck. The resulting image of a priestess, sitting on a stool over a crack in the earth, inhaling sulfur fumes, and making vague and jumbled statements that could be interpreted in many different ways, did not exactly inspire confidence in the method.
The straightforward nature of utilizing an iterative survey to gather information "sounds" so easy to do that many people have done "one" Delphi, but never a second. Since the name gives no obvious insight into the method and since the number of unsuccessful Delphi studies probably exceeds the successful ones, there has been a long history of diverse definitions and opinions about the method. Some of these misconceptions are expressed in statements such as the following that one finds in the literature:
It is a method for predicting future events.
It is a method for generating a quick consensus by a group.
It is the use of a survey to collect information.
It is the use of anonymity on the part of the participants.
It is the use of voting to reduce the need for long discussions.
It is a method for quantifying human judgement in a group setting.
Some of these statements are sometimes true; a few (e.g. consensus) are actually contrary to the purpose of a Delphi. Delphi is a communication structure aimed at producing detailed critical examination and discussion, not at forcing a quick compromise. Certainly quantification is a property, but only to serve the goal of quickly identifying agreement and disagreement in order to focus attention. It is often very common, even today, for people to come to a view of the Delphi method that reflects a particular application with which they are familiar. In 1975 Linstone and Turoff proposed a view of the Delphi method that they felt best summarized both the technique and its objective:
"Delphi may be characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process, so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with complex problems." (page 3)
The essence of Delphi is structuring of the group communication process. Given that there had been much earlier work on how to facilitate and structure face-to-face meetings, the other important distinction was that Delphi was commonly applied utilizing a paper and pencil communication process among groups in which the members were dispersed in space and time. Also, Delphis were commonly applied to groups of a size (30 to 100 individuals) that could not function well in a face-to-face environment, even if they could find a time when they all could get together.
Additional opportunity has been added by the introduction of Computer Mediated Communication Systems (Hiltz and Turoff, 1978; Rice and Associates, 1984; Turoff, 1989; Turoff, 1991). These are computer systems that support group communications in either a synchronous (Group Decision Support Systems, Desanctis et. al., 1987) or an asynchronous manner (Computer Conferencing). Techniques that were developed and refined in the evolution of the Delphi Method (e.g. anonymity, voting) have been incorporated as basic facilities or tools in many of these computer based systems. As a result, any of these systems can be used to carry out some form of a Delphi process or Nominal Group Technique (Delbecq, et. al., 1975).
The result, however, is not merely confusion due to different names to describe the same things; but a basic lack of knowledge by many people working in these areas as to what was learned in the studies of the Delphi Method about how to properly employ these techniques and their impact on the communication process. There seems to be a great deal of "rediscovery" and repeating of earlier misconceptions and difficulties.
Given this situation, the primary objective of this chapter is to review the specific properties and methods employed in the design and execution of Delphi Exercises and to examine how they may best be translated into a computer based environment.
No comments:
Post a Comment